August 12, 2022
Bear Market Rally On Softer Inflation Data
US inflation has made the turn and is now trending lower, but will it fall enough to allow central banks to pivot? Markets are ripping on potentially false hopes. Commodities continue to look favourable over the medium term, and more bearish predictions for the Canadian housing market. …
August 5, 2022
Bubbles Are Bursting in Two of the Largest Housing Markets
Will the Central banks cave on their inflation mandate in the eyes of weakening economic data? The Bank of England just raised interest rates 50bps and says a recession is all but guaranteed for the fourth quarter and that it will last well into next year. The Canadian housing market…
July 29, 2022
The Recession is Here, When Will Central Banks Pivot?
The US federal Reserve raised interest rates another 75bps. More interestingly is that Powell will be removing forward guidance, and all future rate hikes are now data dependent. The US then recorded the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP, indicating a technical recession. Bond yields are falling on the news,…
July 22, 2022
The End of Negative Rates In Europe & Bank Runs in China
CPI inflation in Canada came in at a 40 year high, but was below market expectations. Has inflation peaked from a rate of change perspective? Meanwhile, in the economic fantasy land that is the European Union, the ECB raised rates by 50bps, brining interest rates to zero. The end of…
July 15, 2022
Bank of Canada Shocks Markets With Largest Rate Hike in 24 Years
The Bank of Canada shocked markets with a 100bps rate hike, the largest rate hike since 1998. Variable rate mortgages are going up and we could soon see fixed payment mortgages get triggered with sudden payment increases. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be the global wrecking ball as investors take…
July 8, 2022
Food Inflation Leading To Social Unrest Across The World
Fixed Mortgage rates appear to have finally peaked and are now moving lower as markets price in an economic recession. The first major Canadian bank has now unveiled a recession call for 2023, will the other banks follow? Energy prices, rampant food inflation, and government policy are creating social unrest…
July 1, 2022
Are We Already In A Recession?
Latest data from the Atlanta Fed is suggesting we might already be in a recession. Meanwhile, home sales continue to slow in suburban housing markets, and stresses are rising in the corporate bond market with spreads widening to levels last seen in 2018 when the Fed was forced to pivot.
June 24, 2022
Are Markets Finally Pricing In An Economic Downturn?
Canada’s inflation rate ripped higher once again, hitting 7.7% year-over-year and surpassing market expectations yet the 5 year bond yield fell on the news and has been declining in recent weeks. Have we seen a top in bond yields? Price action across commodities also suggests the inflation story may now…
June 17, 2022
Sovereign Debt Bubbles Ready To Pop
The Bank of Canada Threatens To Break The Housing Market The Federal Reserve raises rates by 75bps the largest rate hike since 1994. The Swiss National Bank also shocked with a 50bps rate hike. Sovereign debt bubbles are now facing immense pressure, particularly in Europe and Japan. The crypto market…
START INVESTING
Sign up for your IceCap ETF Managed Portfolio that we will uniquely develop to achieve your specific goals & objectives.
Enroll Today